Saturday, September 10, 2005

Kings to Vegas, Explained!

Now we know why those Wild and Crazy Maloofs want to move the team to Las Vegas: it's all about the book, baby!

The Kings were .481 against the spread last season, according to's crack research team, making bookies everywhere a little richer. Here's the graphical breakdown by game location and size of spread:

Playoffs included. As an example, "Home Fav 10+" means that the Kings, playing at home, were favored to win by more than 10 points. "Pick" means Vegas threw up their hands and didn't give a line. "Dog," of course, is the opposite of "Fave." You get the idea.

You can also deduce that the Kings were favored in 54 games, expected to lose 29, and had 4 toss-up games. They ended up winning 51 total, which means bettors like the Kings a little too much (the sub .500 versus the spread figure also reveals that).

You can have at it with the data, too, if you're so Excel-inclined.

Here's the short and the long of this: based on last season, don't ever wager on the Kings when they're on the road, no matter the line. They suck at winning on the road, and they suck at covering the spread on the road.

If you are going to wager on the Kings, do it when they're at home and they're favored between six and nine points - they beat the spread almost 70 percent of the time last season. But in games Vegas thinks will be close, the Kings won't cover. It's probably because they lose a lot of close games. So there you go.

(And before anyone starts calling us stupid, we know the Kings -- and possibly the NBA -- would be off the books if the team moved to the Thomas & Mack Center. Any gains the sportsbook at The Palms would make from people thinking the Kings are better than they are and wagering on it would be thusly be negated. We know.)


Blogger pookeyguru said...

actually dude...i remember back in 01 02 u could make a killing on the kings betting if u knew enuf about the team..but last year they were so up & down with all their various problems that getting a guage on the team was so hard. any time that happens it makes it practically impossible to bet. That's why the lakers & kings were so easy to bet on for so many years. They had the same core of players with tendencies that you could guess out & say ok i pretty much have a feeling it might go this way this game & get a better feel on when the right time was to lay down the money. I never gamble & if i had last year would have been the year I WOULD HAVE NEVER bet on this team. U dont bet on a team u dont have a good guage or feel on what its true capability is. unless of course u spend alot of time in gamblers anonymous lol

2:29 PM  
Anonymous Carl said...

Nice work. Like pookeyguru, I wouldn't have bet a nickel on this team. OK, maybe a nickel, but surely not a dime.

6:03 PM  

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Tom Ziller

The Sacramento Kings are a tough act to follow, literally.

SKB does the dirty work so you can forget about the blood, sweat and tears.

Oh, you'll still need the tears in April, though.

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