Tuesday, August 02, 2005

News Flash: Peja Can't Play D

Statistical wizard Dan Rosenbaum has rated the best and worst defenders at each position.

Not surprisingly to Kings fans, Peja is rated as the absolute worse small forward defensively. No other current Kings make any of the lists - not even Mike Bibby, who I consider one of the worst defensive point guards I've ever seen.

I actually thought Peja improved defensively a little bit in the last two seasons. Rosenbaum uses adjusting +/- numbers, along with a linear-weights-based +/-, to come up with his rankings. He calls them projections for next year, and uses three years of data for everyone with that many years in the L.

I have no reason to doubt Rosenbaum's numbers - he's forgotten more about statistics than I've ever learned - and the lists pass the laugh test. But it is slightly discouraging nonetheless.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Carl said...

That list is HIGHLY suspect. Darius Miles (2nd best) is NOT a better defender than Matt Harpring (2nd worst). The stat appears to me to correlate strongly with blocked shots. Miles blocks 1.2 shots in 27 minutes. Harpring blocks 0.2 shots in 33 minutes. Harpring is the better defender. I've watched Peja play a TON of games and I'd say he's an average to above average defender. Interesting conversation piece, but not to be taken seriously.

9:40 PM  

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